Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
